Tuesday, May 17, 2011

NBA Draft Lottery: The Moment of Truth


So this is the day that the worst 14 teams in the NBA have been stressing about for the past few months. The day when the draft order is decided, and the destiny of the top prospects is more a less laid out. Kyrie Irving is the top prospect, and he looks pretty good. The Timberwolves will hope they can get him, even though there's no guarantee it will happen.

The Timberwolves have the worst record in the NBA from last season, so they should get the first pick. But here's the problem I noticed with the lottery: the odds of the worst team getting the first pick are only 25%, meaning that the odds of all the other teams added up are greater. So there is in fact more chance of the worst team not getting the first pick than getting it.

Basic probability states that you should increase the chances of the worst team to 50% to give them an equal chance. I really think this should happen. It's wrong that there is a 75% chance that team with the worst record won't get the first pick.

Still, we'll see what happen later on. Personally, I think the team that deserve it most are probably the Timberwolves, even though you do have to feel sorry for Cleveland and the Lebron saga. It will be very interesting to see the lucky team who come out winners.

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