The Moneyball Strategy: Would it Work in Football?

I've just got back from the cinema, having gone to see Moneyball the film. I've now read both the book and the film, and I'm very impressed with both. In the UK, everybody is now talking about possibly transferring this to football, and whether it would work. I think it potentially could, but it would be slightly different.

The reason Billy Beane had so much success was that baseball has too many stats. As a result, the important ones were overlooked (OBP) in favour of more popular ones (RBI). In football, there aren't as many stats. For strikers you have goals per game, but that is already used by scouting teams around the world. For defenders, possibly goals per game conceded. And for goalkeepers, the most common stat used to judge their ability is clean sheets.

But I think this is wrong, for the most part. Starting with goalkeepers, it is not clean sheets, but saves per game that matters. See this post for more information. For defenders, I would argue that it is successful tackles per game, but goals per game conceded is also of secondary importance. And for strikers, on word: speed.

If you're fast, nobody can catch you, you beat your man and your one on one with the goalkeeper. This is really overlooked and dismissed by pundits, as they claim you need a footballing brain to do well. The fact is that you can train technique and skill. Speed is something that's physical. It's incredibly hard to teach, and people can only reach a certain level by tuition.

That's my view. I think it can be adopted successfully, but it won't have the same stunning effects as it did in baseball as there are not as many stats available to use.